As we approach the midpoint of the NBA season, I've been getting this question more frequently than ever: who's actually going to win the 2023 MVP award? Having covered basketball for over a decade, I can tell you this race feels particularly wide-open compared to recent years. The conversation keeps shifting weekly, and honestly, that's what makes this season so compelling to watch unfold.
Right now, my money's on Nikola Jokić to secure his third MVP trophy, and here's why. The Denver Nuggets have maintained incredible consistency despite facing what coach Michael Malone would call "lahat, mas paghahandaan na natin" – meaning they're preparing for everything, scouting opponents relentlessly, and discussing strategies for every possible matchup. Jokić embodies this mentality perfectly, averaging 24.7 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 9.9 assists while making his teammates significantly better. What many analysts miss when they just look at the stats is how he's elevated Denver's entire offensive system – they're scoring 118.3 points per 100 possessions with him on court versus just 106.8 when he sits. That 11.5-point differential is simply staggering.
Of course, we can't ignore Joel Embiid, who's putting up historic numbers himself with 33.1 points per game. The Philadelphia 76ers have been dominant in the Eastern Conference, and Embiid's two-way impact is undeniable. But here's where I'll be controversial – I think voter fatigue might work against him after last year's victory, and his occasional injury absences (he's missed 12 games already) could ultimately cost him when compared to Jokić's ironman consistency. Still, if Philly finishes with the top seed in the East and Embiid maintains this scoring pace, he'll make it an incredibly difficult decision for voters.
Then there's Luka Dončić, who's been absolutely phenomenal despite Dallas' inconsistent supporting cast. His 34.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 9.5 assists would be MVP-worthy in most seasons, but the Mavericks' current fifth-place position in the West might hurt his case. I've noticed voters increasingly value team success when making their final decisions – remember when Russell Westbrook averaged a triple-double but finished sixth in MVP voting because his team wasn't elite? That precedent could work against Luka unless Dallas climbs significantly in the standings.
What fascinates me about this particular MVP race is how it reflects the league's current philosophical divide. The "lahat, mas paghahandaan na natin" approach – preparing for everything through intense scouting and discussion – that championship teams like Denver employ contrasts sharply with the individual brilliance we're seeing from candidates like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Oklahoma City. SGA has been incredible, leading the Thunder to unexpected success while averaging 31.2 points, but I wonder if his team's relative youth might count against him in the final voting.
Looking at the remaining schedule, I believe Jokić has the clearest path to securing the narrative. Denver faces the toughest remaining strength of schedule among contenders, giving him more opportunities for statement games against elite opponents. If he can maintain his efficiency while leading the Nuggets to the West's top seed – something I believe they'll achieve – that combination of individual excellence and team success will be impossible for voters to ignore. The advanced metrics already favor him significantly – his Player Efficiency Rating of 32.1 would rank among the top 15 seasons in NBA history if maintained.
Ultimately, my prediction comes down to this: Jokić will win because he represents the complete package that MVP voters traditionally reward. He makes his teammates better, he's consistently available, and he's leading what I believe will finish as the best team in the tougher Western Conference. While Embiid's scoring barrage and Dončić's statistical dominance make compelling cases, the Serbian big man's two-way impact and basketball IQ give him the edge in what's shaping up to be one of the closest MVP races we've seen in years.
