As I sit down to analyze this season's UMass Minutemen basketball prospects, I can't help but feel that familiar mix of anticipation and curiosity that comes with every new college basketball campaign. Having followed this program for over a decade, I've learned that roster changes often tell us more about a team's potential than preseason rankings ever could. This year's Minutemen squad presents an intriguing blend of returning veterans and promising newcomers that has me particularly optimistic about their Atlantic 10 prospects.
The most compelling storyline emerging from preseason conversations revolves around senior guard Noah Fernandes, whose candid self-assessment during media day really caught my attention. "I think this time around, I gotta be way more aggressive," he told reporters with a determined look that suggested he'd been thinking about this for a while. "I think last La Salle game, I didn't contribute as much as I wanted to. I want to be there more offensively and defensively for my team and just to support my guys." This kind of accountability is exactly what championship teams are built on, and hearing Fernandes take ownership of his inconsistent performances last season makes me believe we're about to see a breakout year from the 6-foot playmaker. His numbers last season – 14.2 points and 4.8 assists per game – were solid, but watching him play, I always felt he had another gear he could access. That La Salle game he referenced was particularly telling – he finished with just 9 points on 3-of-11 shooting, and the team clearly suffered without his usual offensive creativity.
What impresses me most about Fernandes' comments isn't just the recognition of where he needs to improve, but the specific mention of wanting to contribute more defensively. In my experience covering college basketball, star players who embrace two-way responsibility are the ones who truly elevate their teams. Fernandes has always had quick hands – he averaged 1.3 steals last season – but I've noticed he sometimes conserves energy on defense to carry more offensive load. If he can maintain his offensive production while ramping up his defensive intensity, we could be looking at an All-Conference caliber season.
Beyond Fernandes, the Minutemen return about 68% of their scoring from last season's team that finished 15-16 overall and 7-11 in conference play. Those numbers might not jump off the page, but having watched every game last year, I can tell you this team was much better than their record indicated. They lost five games by three points or fewer, including that heartbreaking double-overtime defeat against Dayton where they led for 38 of the 45 minutes. The experience gained in those close contests should pay dividends this season, particularly for players like junior forward Matt Cross, who I believe is poised for a significant leap. Cross averaged 11.3 points and 6.5 rebounds last season, but his shooting percentages – 41% from the field and 32% from three – need improvement if he wants to become the reliable second option this team desperately needs.
The transfer portal brought in some interesting pieces, most notably 6-foot-9 forward Isaac Kante from Hofstra. Having watched Kante dominate at times in the CAA, I'm excited to see how his physical interior game translates to the Atlantic 10. He averaged 12.8 points and 8.4 rebounds for the Pride last season, and his ability to command double teams should create better looks for UMass's perimeter shooters. The Minutemen attempted just 18.7 three-pointers per game last season – ranking them 287th nationally – so adding a post presence who can kick the ball out to open shooters should help address one of last season's most glaring offensive limitations.
What really has me optimistic, though, is the development I've seen from sophomore guard Rahsool Diggins during offseason workouts. The UConn transfer struggled to find consistent minutes last season, but the coaching staff has been raving about his improved decision-making and conditioning. In limited action last year, Diggins showed flashes of the scoring ability that made him a four-star recruit coming out of high school, and if he can provide reliable backcourt depth behind Fernandes, it would take tremendous pressure off the starting unit.
The schedule sets up nicely for this group to build early confidence, with only two true road games in their first eight contests. That November stretch includes winnable games against Towson and Harvard before a telling early December test against a talented South Florida squad. Having covered college basketball for fifteen years, I've learned that early-season success can create momentum that carries through conference play, and with the relatively soft non-conference slate, UMass could realistically enter Atlantic 10 play with 9 or 10 wins if they take care of business.
Looking at the broader conference landscape, the Atlantic 10 appears more wide-open than it has in recent seasons. Traditional powers like Dayton and VCU remain formidable, but neither looks head-and-shoulders above the competition. This creates an opportunity for a team like UMass to make noise if their key players develop as expected. The Minutemen were picked to finish eighth in the preseason coaches poll, but honestly, I think that's selling them short. Having watched this team's progression throughout last season and seeing the additions they've made, I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish in the top half of the conference and potentially make a run in the A-10 tournament.
The X-factor, in my view, will be how quickly the new pieces gel with the returning core. College basketball success often comes down to chemistry as much as talent, and with three transfers likely to play significant minutes, the coaching staff needs to foster cohesion quickly. Head coach Frank Martin has always been known for getting his teams to play hard-nosed defense, and if he can instill that identity while incorporating the offensive firepower, this could be the most complete UMass team we've seen in nearly a decade.
As tip-off approaches, I find myself more bullish on the Minutemen's prospects than most analysts. The combination of Fernandes' renewed commitment to two-way play, the development of returning players, and the strategic additions through the transfer portal creates a compelling case for significant improvement. I'm predicting they'll finish with at least 18 wins and secure a postseason tournament bid, likely the NIT. The pieces are there for a memorable season in Amherst – it's now up to the players and coaches to turn that potential into results on the court.
